Crowd Predictions From The Frontline

 

A proactive decision tool for dynamic, strategic management

 

Crowd Predictions from the Frontline is a 3-year research project initiated and headed by Collective Intelligence Unit, Department of International Economics and Management, at Copenhagen Business School. The project is supported by The Danish Industry Foundation and derives from the foundation’s theme “call on new management principles”.

The project aims to apply new crowd prediction tools in Danish companies with the goal of helping business leaders and management create stronger and more precise decisions in volatile, global markets based on the wisdom of the crowd.

As a manager, imagine that within one week you can collect data and receive a comprehensive report summarizing what hundreds of your employees predict. And as an employee, imagine that top management makes decisions on the basis of your weekly predictions.

By using crowd prediction software, the project will test and validate crowd predictions as a method for identifying and predicting specific threats and opportunities in partnering companies based on information collected from corporate employees in various frontline operational business units. Since frontline employees (e.g. in production, marketing, sales or services) have direct contact with an extensive range of different stakeholders, they observe changes in the company’s environment on a day to day basis. By aggregating and analyzing this information, it can act as an early warning system with detailed insights, which can substantiate proactive decisions on necessary operational adjustments and new market initiatives to exploit business opportunities.

The project is based on studies of collective intelligence and crowd wisdom [1][2][3][4], and research has shown that the crowd (including frontline employees) can predict various variables highly relevant to a company’s results. For example recent research by Hallin et al. 2017 [5] has shown that frontline employees can predict variables such as team performance, innovation capacity and competitiveness.

The experiences gained from the project will be used to raise awareness of the possibilities in using crowd predictions as a strategic tool for stronger decision-making processes, strengthening the global competitive advantages of Danish firms.

This blog offers continuous information about the project and other topics related to collective intelligence. We hope that you will enjoy our many exiciting updates on topics that are at the forefront in management! To stay informed about this cutting-edge research, feel free to join our email list.

The project “Crowd Predictions From The Frontline” is supported by

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[1] Hong, L., & Page, S. E. (2001). Problem Solving by Heterogeneous Agents. Journal of Economic

Theory97(1), 123–163.

 [2] Hong, L., & Page, S. E. (2004). Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability

problem solvers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences101(46), 16385–16389.

[3] Malone, T. W. (2004). Future of Work: How the New Order of Business Will Shape Your Organization,

Your Management Style, and Your Life (Hardcover). In Harvard Business School Press Books (p. 1).

[4] Woolley, A. W., Chabris, C. F., Pentland, A., Hashmi, N., & Malone, T. W. (2010). Evidence for a collective

intelligence factor in the performance of human groups. Science330(6004), 686–688.

[5] Hallin, C. A., Andersen, T. J., & Tveterås, S. (2017). Harnessing the frontline employee sensing of capabilities for decision support. Decision Support Systems97, 104–112.

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